The piece for Next-Gen.biz is up, called Predicting Those Launch Review Scores. It looks at how launch games have performed in the past and applies the ratios to make a guess at what we'll see for the PlayStation 3 and Wii. I'd like to add a few things here that didn't get into the other piece.
First, here is an expanded version of the graph showing averages. It includes the maximum, average, median, and minimum review averages for each platform.
And here is a comparison of the number of launch games, by platform.
The systems are color coded:
- Sony: RU E? (One of the slogans for the first PlayStation, as I recall.)
- Nintendo: Yellow, for no good reason.
- Sega: Blue, as in the hedgehog.
- Microsoft: The unmistakable Xbox green.
There are a few other bits of data people might find interesting.
Top 11 Launch Games:
- Halo: Combat Evolved, Xbox, 96%
- Soul Calibur, Dreamcast, 96%
- Super Mario 64, Nintendo 64, 96%
- Wave Race 64, Nintendo 64, 92%
- SSX, PlayStation 2, 91%
- NFL 2k, Dreamcast, 91%
- Call of Duty 2, Xbox 360, 90%
- Star Wars: Rogue Squadron II: Rogue Leader, GameCube, 90%
- Super Smash Bros. Melee, GameCube, 90%
- Madden NFL 2001, PlayStation 2, 90%
- Madden NFL 2002, GameCube (!!), 90%
The bottom 9 on the list:
- Eternal Ring, PlayStation 2, 57%
- Mortal Kombat Gold, Dreamcast, 56%
- Orphen: Scion of Sorcery, PlayStation 2, 54%
- Arctic Thunder, Xbox, 54%
- Cruis'n USA, Nintendo 64, 54%
- Mortal Kombat Trilogy, Nintendo 64, 54%
- Evergrace, PlayStation 2, 52%
- ESPN Extreme Games, PSOne, 50%
- Total Eclipse Turbo, PSOne, 48%
I don't have anything else to add, but I suppose others might have opinions. If you want to look at the data for yourself, here is a CSV file you can load into your favorite spreadsheet.
I count 18 launch games for the original Xbox, not 10. Here are the games and Gamerankings scores:
4x4 Evo 2 61
AirForce Delta Storm 67
Cel Damage 66
Dark Summit 67
Dead or Alive 3 72
Fuzion Frenzy 65
Mad Dash Racing 67
Madden 2002 88
NASCAR Heat 2002 80
NASCAR Thunder 2002 82
NFL Fever 2002 81
NHL Hitz 20-02 81
Oddworld: Munch's Oddysee 79
Project Gotham Racing 87
Test Drive Off Road Wide Open 62
Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 2x 83
TransWorld Surf 74
Jason: Thanks! I will get some updated figures tonight. A couple of responses, for now:
1. I count 19 games in your list. Correct?
2. Arctic Thunder isn't on your list but Microsoft says it came out 15 Nov 2001, which would make it a launch title.
Combining all corrections so far, does that make the total 20?
Smash Bros Melee wasn't available at launch, which allowed the extra bonus of seeing that it was indeed a system seller game. Gamecube sales spiked the week that Melee was release.
Baines: You are correct, it was not precisely at launch, but two week later (give or take). Jason has sent me his data and I'll be combing through it tonight. There will an updated post with new graphs when I get them finished.
And just so you know. There are only 16 PS3 titles that are actually out right now (2 can be cut from that because they have "bonus content". The "Launch Titles" as defined by Sony, have been cut back dramatically.
1. Call of Duty 3
2. Genji: Days of the Blade
3. Madden NFL 07
4. Marvel Ultimate Alliance
5. Marvel Ultimate Alliance with Bonus!
6. Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire
7. NBA 2007
8. Need for Speed: Carbon
9. NHL 2K7
10. Resistance: Fall of Man
11. Ridge Racer 7
12. Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07
13. Tony Hawk's Project 8
14. Tony Hawk's Project 8 with Bonus!
15. Untold Legends: Dark Kingdom
16. Virtua Tennis 3
Anon: Thanks for the info. I actually had a post up the day of the launch where I scouted out the games at three stores. I came up with 14, same as your 16 less the two "with bonus" games.